The Duke-Wake Forest rivalry, which the Demon Deacons have won 12 straight times, has been fairly even talent-wise since David Cutcliffe took over in Durham. An even match was the case again Saturday, where in all three phases of the game, neither side was significantly better than the other.
Wake Forest's timing, however, ultimately gave it a win against the Blue Devils. In the first half, when possessions reached the critical down, the Demon Deacons kept drives going. The Blue Devils didn't. And despite a poor second half from Wake Forest, its efficient first half gave it enough of a push to leave Durham at 4-1 in the ACC.
Situation: Third-and-14 for Wake Forest at the Duke 26 midway through the first quarter. No score.
Play: As an obvious passing down, neither side dances around the issue. Wake Forest plays shotgun with four wide receivers and Duke counters with a three-lineman, two-linebacker version of dime.
The Blue Devils know Wake Forest quarterback Tanner Price likes throwing to wide receiver Chris Givens, the Demon Deacons' best pass catcher – Duke has already been burned for two first downs by Givens catches at this point in the game. Before that happens again, the Devils blitz both linebackers.
Result: Duke gets nowhere close to Price. Even though the coverage down field is superb, Price has way, way, way too much time to throw. Wake Forest picks up the rush easily, Price rolls to his right, then finds Givens for a touchdown.
From the time the Deacs snapped the ball to the time Price threw it, seven-and-a-half seconds elapsed. No defensive back can realistically be expected to cover anybody for that long.
Situation: Wake Forest ball with a third-and-15 at their own 9. Wake Forest leads, 10-0. Duke, after giving Price ample time to throw on its first scoring drive, has turned the tides. Pressure forced an incompletion and a sack on the first two plays of the drive to create a third-and-long for the Demon Decons.
Play: Wake Forest plays a shotgun with two backs and three receivers, and Duke plays its normal 4-2-5. The Devils elect to play a Cover Two zone, where Price spots Michael Campanaro on a deep in route.
Result: Wake Forest earns a demoralizing first down and keeps hold of the ball.
Yet the Devils have another chance to get off the field on the drive:
Situation: Fourth-and-two and Duke's 21. Jim Grobe shoos away the field goal team, who would have had a high-percentage shot at the uprights.
Play: Wake Forest shows a pistol look with a fullback to Price's side, and Duke stays steady in its 4-2-5. Price looks for Givens – again – on a fade route. Duke plays single coverage on the outside.
Result: After initially being ruled out-of-bounds, review determines that Givens did, in fact, have a foot in bounds. Cornerback Ross Cockrell's coverage was pretty good, but a better throw-and-catch keeps the drive going, and the Demon Decons score a touchdown two plays later.
And now to the Blue Devils on critical downs:
Situation: Third-and-five for Duke at the Wake Forest 33, 8:51 in the first quarter. No score.
Play: Duke plays a five-wide set and the Demon Decons rush three and drop eight into coverage.
Result: Duke's system calls for the ball to be out of Renfree's hands in 2.6 seconds or less, and any sacks from that point on are Renfree's responsibility. In this scenario, the Devils have five to block three – which shouldn't be a difficult task; however, left guard John Coleman gets beat by defensive tackle Nikita Whitlock, who is 30 pounds smaller and six inches shorter. Whitlock is in Renfree's grill in 2.4 seconds, records a sack and the Devils are forced to punt.
Situation: Duke ball at the Wake Forest 49. Fourth-and inches for the Blue Devils, who trail 10-0.
Play: Renfree sneaks for a first down, but the whistle blows. False start, Duke.
Result: The Blue Devils, who had fallen behind two scores, were having an effective drive. Duke was running and passing efficiently and getting into its first offensive rhythm of the afternoon. After the penalty, though, Cutcliffe has little choice but to punt to the Demon Decons, who extend their lead to 17 on the ensuing possession.
Duke wasn't terribly penalized (six penalties for 50 yards), but its misdeeds ended drives. On a second-and-three later in the second quarter, and at the Wake Forest 11, Duke committed a false start and a holding penalty on consecutive plays. They settled for a field goal.
In a one-point Duke loss, a difference on any of the above plays could be the difference between winning and losing. Duke has to be better at critical points if they're going to knock the 'same old Duke' talk they get after losses.
Notes
-Wake Forest refused to let Duke beat them with the deep throw. Conservative coverages gave Renfree his short option time and again, and he took it: 25 of Renfree's 45 attempts were at five yards from the line-of-scrimmage or shorter. It'll be interesting to see if Virginia Tech tries the same thing this coming Saturday.
-Duke's run blocking has improved considerably from the beginning of the season, which is impressive given that its top two centers are injured. The stat line doesn't do the Blue Devils justice (only 3.4 yards per carry), but the overall number was muddied by its red zone packages. Duke brought in backup quarterback Anthony Boone in running sets, and the Blue Devils rushed 11 times for 19 yards with Boone.
-On Wake Forest's game-winning touchdown, an interception gamble took one defender out of the play, and three Blue Devils missed chances to bring down Chris Givens. If one of the four had gotten Givens to the ground, it's realistic to say the Devils win the game.
Add comment