By Ray Watters | Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - 21:50
Republicans are expected to use increasing gas prices to hammer President Barack Obama leading up to the presidential election.
"Gasoline prices are unacceptable. We can do better!" reads a tweet Republican hopeful Newt Gingrich sent within the past week. He also directed supporters to sign an online petition demanding a return to $2.50-a-gallon fuel.
Rick Santorum has made a point of linking the president to a radical environmenal agenda and bashing Democrats for pushing alternatives to oil. "They want higher energy prices," he said. "They want to push their radical agenda on the public. We need a president who is on the side of affordable energy."
The Republican National Committe is helping coordinate that message with candidates and conservative pundits, asking them to focus on unemployment, the national debt and the cost of gasoline as the three main features of what its "Top Line Messaging" calls the "Obama economy."
Observers expect the White House to respond by pointing to efforts to raise the fuel efficiency of American gas and a recent U.S. Interior Deparment announcement of an expansion of oil exploration in Artic waters.
The Keystone oil pipeline delay also is expected to play a prominent role in the national conversation between now and Election Day.
By Ray Watters | Tuesday, February 21, 2012 - 23:39
The super PACs supporting Mitt Romeny and Newt Gingrich in the Republican presidential primary have raised more money and have more cash in the bank then the candidates' own campaigns.
Restore Our Future, the super PAC that supports Romney, and Winning Our Future, the super PAC that supports Gingrich, raised a combined $17 million in January and spent nearly $24 million. Much of the spending goes toward television and radio announcements to sway large numbers of voters at a time.
Compare that to these numbers: Romney gathered $6.5 million in donations during January and had $7.7 million left in the bank. Gingrich's campaign raised $5.5 million in Janauary and had about $1.8 million in cash remaining.
President Barack Obama fundraising short of 2008 numbers
By Ray Watters | Saturday, February 18, 2012 - 20:55
Media outlets reported this week that President Barack Obama pulled in $29.1 million for his re-election campaign and the national arm of the Democratic Party in January. That puts Obama's fundraising total for this presidential race around $250 million.
The Wall Street Journal pointed out that his haul was less than it was at this point four years ago when Obama was running for the Democratic nomination. In January 2008, Obama raised $36.2 million and the DNC raised $5.8 million for itself that same month.
How that compares to the Republicans seeking the GOP nomination will be known Tuesday, when candidates will release their own fundraising reports.
By Ray Watters | Friday, February 17, 2012 - 21:55
Rasmussen Reports released a telephone survey today that shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 39 percent support among likely Republican primary voters in Arizona.
Santorum has closed a once wider gap since he now has the support of 31 percent of likely voters.
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich trails far behind them both with 15 percent of likely voters and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has about 7 percent support. That's close to the 5 percent who remain undecided in the primary election, which will be held Feb. 28.
The poll of 750 likely voters was held Thursday and has a smapling error of 4 percent.
Political satire on the Threat Down? 'Colbert Report' off air
By Eugene Tinklepaugh | Thursday, February 16, 2012 - 21:00
Comedy Central's "Colbert Report" is off the air and it's a mystery why. An expected new episode of the show was replaced by a repeat on Wednesday. More repeats are expected to be aired.Comedy Central said it was airing the repeats "due to unforeseen circumstances" but offered no other explanation. Colbert's popular "fake commentary" program airs Monday through Thursday at 11:30 p.m., following "The Daily Show" with Jon Stewart. Multiple outlets are reporting that a family illness is the cause of the suspension of "The Colbert Report" and that the host's mother is seriously ill. Fans and supporters have been tweeting messages of love and support for Colbert and his family throughout the day. Colbert was born the youngest of 11 children to mother Lorna, 91, and father, James, who died in a plane accident in 1974 along with two of Colbert's brothers. Are you missing your daily dose of political satire with Colbert off the air? Tell us your take on Colbert.
By Ray Watters | Wednesday, February 15, 2012 - 16:51
Rick Santorum, the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, basically tied Mitt Romney in nationwide polling about the GOP primaries. The jump comes after Santorum won votes in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri last week.
The sweep pushed Santorum to 30 percent support in a poll this week by the Pew Research Center. The same poll showed 28 percent support for Romney. But it's not all good news for Santorum: The same poll showed that 31 percent of those asked did not know enough about Santorum to rate him.
Santorum's campaign worker said they plans to use the $4 million in donations made this week to help spread the word.
U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers, D-2nd District, has received a fair share of the national media spotlight, appearing on several cable news shows on Fox News and the Fox Business Channel in recent weeks.
The freshman lawmaker appeared Thursday on "Fox & Friends," where she discussed the ongoing stalemate over raising the federal debt ceiling. She was a guest on Fox Business Channel's "Lou Dobbs Tonight" on Friday, where she talked about the GOP's "Cut, Cap and Balance Plan."
Also on Friday, Ellmers participated in a congressional women's focus group moderated by legendary GOP pollster Frank Luntz on the Fox News show "Hannity."
N.C. Rep. Jeff Collins, R-Nash, recently launched a blog in which he posts news and his views on legislation, issues and policy proposals circulating in the N.C. General Assembly.
Vacation Island donors give $2 million, push for jetties
By Bob Hall | Wednesday, March 2, 2011 - 19:57
(Editor's Note: Bob Hall is executive director of Democracy North Carolina)
As the legislature debates a controversial bill to allow construction of “terminal groins” along North Carolina’s beaches, a new study reveals that the bill’s chief sponsor and other state lawmakers have received $2 million in campaign donations from a group of groin advocates who own vacation homes on Figure 8 Island near Wilmington.
The group includes many of the richest, most powerful political donors in North Carolina. They have hired prominent Republican and Democratic lobbyists and created a political action committee (PAC) called the Island Preservation Society, which has donated more than $100,000 to lawmakers, according to the analysis by the nonpartisan group Democracy North Carolina.
Lobbyists for the Figure 8 Beach Homeowners Association include former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker and Joseph H. Lanier, former Sen. Jesse Helms’ legislative director. Donors to the Island Preservation Society PAC include restaurant owners Nick Boddie and Louis Sewell, investors William Armfield IV and Thomas Kenan III, publisher Frank Daniels Jr., developers Julian Rawl and Stephen Cornwell, contractors Earl Johnson Jr., John Bratton Jr. and Frank Dowd IV, auto dealers Fred Anderson and Linda Leith, beer wholesalers Lewis Nunnelee and Rodney Long, entrepreneurs Nat Harris and Charles Winston, and about 100 other civic and business leaders.
In addition to the PAC, the group of donors and their immediate families have given more than $1.8 million to state politicians since they began their pro-jetties campaign in late 2003 with a fundraising drive for then state Senate leader Marc Basnight. The Senate under Basnight repeatedly adopted bills to undo the state’s longstanding ban against groins, but the House and Speaker Joe Hackney blocked their passage. Basnight led all recipients with $14,000 from the Preservation Society PAC and $305,989 directly from its backers from Nov. 2003 to Dec. 2010. (See details on pages 2 and 3 of http://www.democracy-nc.org/PDFs/Fig8DnrsPR2011.pdf)
Not all the homeowners on Figure 8 Island support the groins, and nearly all coastal geologists say they will hasten erosion for down-beach property. Nevertheless, the island’s groin advocates have stepped up their donations in the past two years, especially to Republicans.
State Sen. Harry Brown (R-Jacksonville), the main sponsor of Senate Bill 110 to allow terminal groins near inlets, received $22,500 in the 2010 election cycle from donors related to Figure 8 Island and the Preservation Society PAC, according to Democracy North Carolina. He received only $2,000 in the previous five years combined.
Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger (R-Eden) received $10,450 in 2010 from the donors, including $1,000 from the PAC, his first donations from these donors since the PAC began.
“The large role of private money in public elections puts good lawmakers and donors under added scrutiny,” said Bob Hall of Democracy North Carolina. “The amount of money major donors can give and raise will make politicians pay attention, but legislation should stand on its merits, not depend on campaign donations. Republican leaders who said they opposed pay-to-play politics must now be careful not to practice what they preached against.”
By Geoffrey Cooper | Wednesday, March 2, 2011 - 19:32
The U.S. Census Bureau released detailed numbers of the 2010 Census Wednesday, which outlines the North Carolina's population activity during the past decade.
The final demographics and population numbers will be used by the N.C. General Assembly to craft new lines for federal and state legislative districts.
According to the 2010 Census web site, the redistricting file consists of five detailed tables: the first shows the population by race, including six single race groups and 57 multiple race groups (63 total race categories); the second shows the Hispanic or Latino population as well as the non-Hispanic or Latino population cross-tabulated by the 63 race categories.
These tabulations are repeated in the third and fourth tables for the population 18 years and over and are for the resident population of the United States. The fifth table provides counts of housing units and their occupancy status.
Click here for a complete listing of the custom table results.
By Geoffrey Cooper | Wednesday, February 23, 2011 - 20:08
(Editor's note: The offices of N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, and Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, issued the following press release Wednesday concerning the spending targets for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees. Republicans have proposed spending plans for next year's budget that amount to $17.56 billion, which is $1.4 billion less than what Gov. Bev Perdue has suggested.)
“The spending targets announced today come at a time when decisive action is required to put North Carolina’s fiscal house in order,” said Speaker Tillis. “The new majority in the General Assembly did not create this budget shortfall, but we were elected to fix it. To do so, we have announced aggressive targets to reign in state spending, which has ballooned over the last decade. Everything is on the table as we look for creative solutions to this problem.”
“No decisions have been made. No specific positions or programs have been targeted,” said Senator Berger. “We were elected to reduce spending and right-size state government. This is the first step in that process.”
For a complete list of the proposed cuts, click here.
By Geoffrey Cooper | Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - 17:44
Gov. Bev Perdue vetoed Senate Bill 13 Tuesday, a first in the current legislative session and the second of her administration.
The bill allows Perdue authority to seize close to $400 million from this fiscal year's budget. But Perdue criticized the bill beacuse some of the suggested cuts took away incentives needed to attract businesses.
Republicans said the proposed cuts in the bill are necessary in order to prepare for the state's $2.4 billion shortfall next fiscal year.
“This bill started out as a way to help North Carolina secure $400 million in additional savings from state government agencies during this difficult budget time,” Perdue said in a statement. “I suggested that bill to the General Assembly and was ready to sign that legislation. But the bill in its current form forces a one-time cash-grab from funds that are intended to create jobs and spur economic development. That’s not the right move for North Carolina, where jobs simply must be our No. 1 priority.”
The Republican leadership in both the N.C. House and Senate criticized Perdue for her actions.
“We are extremely disappointed by Governor Perdue’s decision to veto Senate Bill 13. She has said as recently as last week that she is committed to balancing the budget and protecting the jobs of teachers and state employees. But with this veto, the Governor makes balancing the budget more difficult, and makes it harder to protect teachers and state employees," N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, said in a prepared statement. "We are already concerned with the Governor’s proposal to raise taxes on working families and small businesses via the new sales tax. Now our concerns are heightened by her refusal to save hundreds of millions of dollars on behalf of the taxpayers.”
Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, said Perdue’s veto makes it more difficult to balance the state’s budget without cutting teachers’ jobs and negatively impacting our classrooms.
"Last week, Gov. Perdue claimed she wanted to protect the jobs of our school teachers, teaching assistants and rank-and-file state employees. And two months ago, she declared she did not know how to spell ‘tax increase’," he said. "And while her solution is to raise taxes that destroy private sector jobs, Senate Republicans refuse to reach further into North Carolinians’ pockets. If Gov. Perdue’s veto is truly about jobs as she says, then why would she keep unused extra tax money in these special funds she controls instead of using it to protect teachers’ jobs or to avoid a job destroying tax increase on the private sector?”
According to state law, the House and Senate would need 3/5 votes to trump Perdue's veto. The Senate carries enough votes, but the House would need four Democrats to switch sides.
Click here to see an official copy of Perdue's veto message.
By Gene Metrick | Friday, February 18, 2011 - 17:50
(Editor's note: The office of U.S. Rep. Walter Jones, R-3rd District, issued the following press release Friday.)
U.S. Rep. Walter B. Jones commended former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell for his call for an investigation into the false claims by an Iraqi defector that weapons of mass destruction existed.
“Curveball,” as the defector is now known, was the linchpin in the U.S. government’s case that Iraq possessed WMD. He recently bragged to The Guardian UK saying: "I had the chance to fabricate something to topple the regime. I and my sons are proud of that."
Powell is demanding to know why it was not made clear to him at the time before the Iraq war that the source for information on WMD was unreliable. The CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency are the focal points for most of Powell’s questions, as he claims they never notified the Bush administration.
“I applaud Gen. Powell for demanding the answers to questions that could have prevented the deaths of thousands of American soldiers,” said Jones. “I, too, am outraged that we were lied to, and those who are responsible need to face the repercussions.”
Jones sent a letter to CIA Inspector General David Buckley demanding answers, as the government owes the families of those fallen heroes an explanation into how our intelligence agencies allowed this clearly flawed information to make its way to top administration officials and Congress.
“I strongly urge my colleagues in Congress to join Gen. Powell and me in this effort for the truth. I appreciate The Guardian UK for their coverage of this story and I can only hope the truth will be exposed. A lot of bloodshed could have been prevented; a lot of lives saved.”
Bryant, Farmer-Butterfield to sit on redistricting panel
By Geoffrey Cooper | Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 15:30
A pair of Twin Counites lawmakers recently were tapped by N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, to sit on the House Redistricting Committee.
N.C. Reps. Angela Bryant, D-Nash, and Jean Farmer-Butterfield, D-Wilson, were two of 19 Democrats selected Tuesday to join Republicans in crafting state legislative and the U.S. House district maps for the 2012 election. Republicans will lead the process with 24 members sitting on the panel.
Harnett County Republican David Lewis was tapped as the panel's senior chairman. GOP Reps. Jerry Dockham of Davidson County and Nelson Dollar of Wake County also are chairmen. A majority of the committee is made up of Republicans.
Republican leaders have said they want to finish creating the maps by May 15.
By Geoffrey Cooper | Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 10:29
(Editor's note: The office of U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., issued the following release Monday.)
Today, U.S. Sens. Richard Burr, R-N.C., and John Thune, R-S.D., introduced the Public Employee Pension Transparency Act, legislation that will enhance transparency for state and local pensions and establish a clear federal prohibition on any future public pension bailouts by the federal government. Congressman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., and Government Reform and Oversight Chairman Darrell Issa, R-Calif., introduced companion legislation in the House last week.
"For too long, taxpayers and government employees have been denied information about how badly government worker pension plans are underfunded. My bill would simply shed some light on these enormous liabilities. This information is only for the purpose of public disclosure; it does not tread on the rights of states and local governments to fund and control their own pension plans," said Burr. "My bill also prevents a federal bailout of state and local government pension plans, empowering local governments to make the reforms needed to ensure problems cannot be dumped on taxpayers down the road."
"State and local government pension liabilities across the country are currently being understated and taxpayers have a right to know the true dimensions of this looming problem," said Thune. "It is crucial that states provide more transparency and accountability regarding their pension liabilities and take necessary steps to get their balance sheets in order."
"This legislation is about getting accurate information to government employees, retirees, policy makers, and the people who are responsible for paying the bills - namely, the American taxpayer," said Nunes.
"We need to ensure that state and local governments are accurate and honest in detailing their financial liabilities, including the cost of pension plans for public employees. The Public Employee Pension Transparency Act will make government more accountable to taxpayers by shining a light on the financial soundness and unfunded obligations associated with these plans. I'm honored to join Representatives Nunes and Issa in sponsoring this legislation in the House and am glad Senators Burr and Thune have introduced a companion bill in the Senate," said Ryan.
"Year after year, the unfunded liabilities being run-up pension liabilities is having a crippling effect on the financial health of our states and municipalities. This burden will ultimately be passed onto the taxpayers and they have a right to know the true nature of the pension liabilities they will be asked to foot the bill for. Quite frankly, if they have nothing to hide, there's no reason why the states and local governments who control public employee pensions should not embrace this effort to ensure that the taxpayers have a more transparent accounting of the true nature of pension liabilities," said Issa.
According to leading financial experts, the true magnitude of the debt arising from public employee pension plans is obscured from taxpayers because of rosy assumptions. Public pensions are able to calculate their liabilities using unreasonably high discount rates. In many instances, they also distort fair market value of assets in order to hide debt.
The Public Employee Pension Transparency Act will establish new transparency rules, allowing plans to report their existing financial data but also requiring them to report their methods and assumptions. Public employee pension plans will also have to report their liabilities using a uniform accounting standard that provides realistic rates of return and ties assets to more reasonable fair market valuations.
The bill also specifically states that the federal government will not assume responsibility for any current or future shortfall in a state or local authority's pension plan. This is a clear policy statement that will help state and local governments address their very real pension problems. No longer can proponents of the status quo claim that there will be an endless source of contributions from taxpayers to keep plans running no matter how badly managed or underfunded. States will now have the moral standing to bring all stakeholders together to solve their problems. Taxpayers are stakeholders and now they will truly know what they are on the hook for in the context of those discussions.
Independent studies demonstrate that public employee pensions had approximately $1.94 trillion set aside to pay retirement benefits promised to government workers as of 2008. However, these pensions have liabilities of $5.17 trillion, which means that they are underfunded by $3.23 trillion. Ten states are projected to run out of pension funds by 2020, and the vast majority of states will have exhausted their pension funds by 2030.
By Geoffrey Cooper | Wednesday, February 16, 2011 - 09:57
(Editors note: The Office of U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., issued the following release Monday.)
U.S. Senator Kay R. Hagan, D-N.C., today announced that she will serve as an Honorary Co-Chair of Third Way, a prominent policy organization committed to promoting effective, moderate solutions to our most pressing national challenges.
“I am honored to work with Third Way and other moderate members of Congress to advance sensible, bipartisan solutions that will strengthen the economy and move North Carolina and our country forward,” said Hagan. “North Carolinians are sick of Washington partisanship. Working together, we can move away from the polarization that has caused so much gridlock on Capitol Hill to create a business climate in this country that allows for job creation and economic growth.”
Hagan, who recently joined the Senate Banking Committee, is also a co-chair of Third Way’s new Clean Energy Innovation Project, which supports investing in research and development for American-made clean energy. Hagan is joined by fellow Third Way Honorary Co-Chairs U.S. Sens. Tom Carper, D-Del., Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., Mark Udall, D-Colo., Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Chris Coons D-Del.
Since coming to the Senate, Hagan has advocated for bipartisan, moderate policies. For example, she cosponsored a bipartisan bill to help businesses create jobs and grow. The Small Business Paperwork Mandate Elimination Act, introduced by U.S. Sen. Mike Johanns, R-Neb., removes the 1099 tax-reporting paperwork from the health care reform law and allows small business owners to focus on job growth. The Senate voted for a similar 1099 repeal, and Hagan is working with her colleagues to see the provision become law.
Also, last year, Hagan included two bipartisan provisions in Wall Street reform legislation. She worked with U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, to include language preserving access to a full spectrum of financial services for the U.S. military community. She also worked with U.S. Sens. Mary Landrieu, D-La., and Johnny Isakson R-Ga., to add a provision ensuring the availability of credit to well-qualified homeowners. Hagan will continue to work across the aisle to include these types of commonsense provisions in upcoming legislation.
By Gene Metrick | Friday, February 11, 2011 - 21:57
The U.S. House voted overwhelmingly Friday in favor of a bill to rein in federal regulations.
The bill, House Resolution 72, was approved by a bipartisan vote of 391-28
U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers, R-2nd District, lauded the measure, which directs 10 House committees to review whether federal regulations are impeding job growth.
"In all of my years in business I can honestly say that I have never seen an administration so prepared to regulate nearly every ailment, either real or perceived," Ellmers said. "We must remove burdensome regulations so that businesses can grow and entrepreneurs can start new businesses to get people back to work."
By Gene Metrick | Thursday, February 10, 2011 - 19:16
Thousands of conservative activists have converged in Washington this week for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference.
One of the most notable items on the conference's three-day agenda is a straw poll for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination that lists 15 contenders, an "undecided" option and a space for a write-in candidate.
The 15 candidates on the ballot are:
U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour
Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman
Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum
U.S. Sen. John Thune
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, won last year's CPAC poll with 31 percent of the vote over second-place finisher Mitt Romney, who garnered 22 percent. Romney had won the poll the three previous years.
By Gene Metrick | Wednesday, February 9, 2011 - 20:49
U.S. Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., announced Wednesday that he will not seek a second term.
In an e-mail announcement, the 65-year-old former U.S. Navy secretary said that after much thought, he had decided to return to the private sector. He offered no additional details about his plans but said he has "every intention of remaining involved" in national issues.
The announcement leaves Democrats scrambling to field a strong candidate in a Southern state that has alternated between Democratic and Republican control in recent years.
Former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, who is chairman of the Democratic Committee, had earlier ruled out a run for the Senate seat should Webb decide not to seek re-election.
"For the past four years, Senator Webb has been a strong and effective advocate for the people of Virginia," Kaine said in a statement. "I had hoped that Senator Webb, having worked tirelessly to help elect him in 2006, would run for reelection and continue his service in the Senate.
"However, over the past decade, we’ve made major progress in turning Virginia from a solidly Republican state to a highly competitive one, including Senator Webb’s victory in 2006, Senator Warner’s victory in 2008 and President Obama’s historic victory in 2008. With the investments that President Obama and the Democratic Party will make in Virginia in 2012, I am confident that our party will hold on to this Senate seat in 2012."
Former U.S. Sen. George Allen, also a former Virginia governor whose re-election bid was defeated by Webb in 2006, already has announced that he will seek the seat.
Data Highlight: Misleading Polls from the Pope Civitas Institute
By Bob Hall | Friday, February 4, 2011 - 20:28
(Editor's Note: Bob Hall is executive director of Democracy North Carolina).
The John W. Pope Civitas Institute is publicizing a new opinion poll designed to bring attention to their perspective on key issues, in this case election-related policies [see notes 1 and 2 below]. It’s a formula that works well for them, with some media reporting the poll’s findings as an accurate reflection of what North Carolinians believe.
But surveys can be manipulated to get a desired outcome in a number of ways - for example, by cherry picking the respondents or by using loaded wording in a question. The recent Pope Civitas Institute poll appears to suffer from both problems.
The poll taken January 19-20 yielded two press releases, and in each release Pope Civitas claims that “All respondents were part of a fully representativesample of registered voters in North Carolina.” But the crosstabs [see note 3] reveal that some subgroups of registered voters are under-represented in the survey, while others are over-represented.
For example:
African Americans make up 21.6 percent of registered voters in North Carolina (as of January 1, 2011), but they are only 16.0 percent of the Pope Civitas survey respondents.
Republicans are 31.6 percent of registered voters but 34.0 percent of the respondents.
Seniors age 66 and up are 17.5 percent of registered voters, but 23.3 percent of those included in the poll’s findings.
In contrast, young people age 18 to 25 are 11.4 percent of registered voters, but only 7.3 percent of the respondents.
In other words, the survey substantially under-represents black voters and over-represents elderly voters. Republicans are also over-represented and the Democrats selected are much older and whiter (and likely more conservative) than the actual profile of registered Democrats in North Carolina.
It is simply misleading to present the poll as “fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.” The press release also says the survey focused its interviews on an odd mixture of people who either voted in two of the past four general elections or who registered since 2008. But it still claims to be a representative sample of all registered voters.
The questions asked in the poll also seem calculated to distort an honest survey of public opinion.
A question about North Carolina’s new law that allows teenagers to pre-register to vote but not vote at an earlier age is stated as: “Would you support or oppose a proposal to allow 16 and 17 year olds to register to vote?” There’s nothing indicating that the teenager is not allowed to vote at an earlier age, or that the law was designed to help them pre-register when they visit the DMV at age 16 and take Civics in the 10th grade. The legislation had broad bipartisan support in the General Assembly and became effective January 1, 2010.
Perhaps the heavy opposition expressed by those surveyed would have changed if the question’s wording read: “Would you support or oppose a proposal to keep the voting age in North Carolina at 18 but allow 16 and 17 year olds to pre-register to vote when they sign up for a driver’s license?”
Ironically, the new law does not appear to particularly hurt Republicans. An analysis by Democracy North Carolina of the 38,500 teenagers who pre-registered during 2010 shows that 30.6 percent signed up as Republicans, 29.2 percent as Democrats, 0.9 percent as Libertarian and 39.3 percent as Unaffiliated.
A second Pope Civitas question, this one about the Same Day Registration law, is asked this way: “Would you support or oppose a proposal allowing unregistered people to register and vote on the same day?”
The results would likely be different if the wording said: “Would you support or oppose a proposal allowing citizens to register and vote on the same day, if they were required to present a North Carolina driver’s license or other ID that could be verified before their ballot counted?”
A third question asks: “Would you support or oppose a proposal using taxpayer dollars to fund politician’s campaigns?” The Pope Civitas Institute uses the 83% negative response to say the public financing program for appellate judicial candidates should be gutted, but taxpayers are not compelled to fund the politicians’ campaigns.
A little over half of the money for the NC Public Campaign Fund comes from a $3 check-off on the state income tax form that is completely voluntary for the taxpayer. The other half comes from an assessment on the dues paid by attorneys to the State Bar, and the attorney can designate that the money only go to support the judicial voter guide mailed to households, which represents about a third of the program’s total cost.
So contrary to the deceptive framing of the Pope Civitas so-called opinion poll, no one is compelled to support judicial candidates with a dime of tax money.
To illustrate how the wording in a question can influence the answer, contrast the Pope Civitas findings with the April 2009 poll by the NC Center for Voter Education [note 4]. The Center’s pollster asked the question this way: “North Carolina currently has a law that gives statewide judicial candidates the option of accepting public campaign funding if they agree to spending limits and refuse money from political action committees. It also makes judicial elections nonpartisan and provides voter guides to explain judicial candidates’ qualifications. What is your position on this program?”
In response, 60 percent of the voters surveyed said they favored the program, while 22 percent opposed it and 18 percent were undecided.
One wonders how much longer the Pope Civitas Institute can gain attention for a form of “push polling” that asks carefully selected audiences carefully crafted questions to produce a response it wants to publicize.
By Geoffrey Cooper | Thursday, February 3, 2011 - 02:02
(Editor's note: The following remarks are by Gov. Bev Perdue issued Wednesday regarding the proposed Senate Bill 13. The bill would grant Perdue the authority to reduce this year's budget by $400 million. One of the main suggested budget cutting methods by Republicans includes reductions of more than $67.5 million from the Golden LEAF Foundation.)
"The proposed cuts to North Carolina's jobs and economic development funds will damage our ability to recruit new jobs and to expand existing businesses in the state. Other Southern states, notably Virginia, have called for an increase in similar funds so they can take our jobs away.
I am truly surprised that Senate leadership is considering taking North Carolina's jobs money as a way to balance the budget. It won't work - and what's more, our people won't work if we can't bring new companies and new industries to our state. We have many hundreds of new jobs in the pipeline right now, and they depend on that money. If we don't win those projects, those jobs go somewhere else. It's that simple."
By Geoffrey Cooper | Thursday, February 3, 2011 - 01:11
(Editor's note: The release below was issued Wednesday by the House Republican Caucus following the passage of HB2, the "N.C. Healthcare Protection Act.")
The North Carolina House of Representatives today approved House Bill 2, the “NC Healthcare Protection Act”, by a vote of 66 to 50 on final passage. This legislation protects North Carolina citizens from the unconstitutional mandate to enroll in health insurance or to buy medical care under the federal health care legislation passed last year. Enactment of HB 2 would also make North Carolina a plaintiff with twenty-eight other states in federal lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act”.
The House vote came two days day after U.S. District Court Judge Roger Vinson ruled the entire federal health care bill unconstitutional. Judge Vinson’s ruling agrees with the assertions of the majority of the NC House that Congress cannot mandate individual citizens to purchase health insurance.
“The federal health care legislation is the first time Congress has imposed onerous requirements on citizens merely because they are alive and draw breath,” said House Majority Leader Paul Stam (R-Wake). “We believe today’s vote in the House defends our citizens against the clearly unconstitutional mandates in this overreaching federal statute.”
Representative Jeff Barnhart (R-Cabarrus) led the floor debate. “Enactment of HB 2 will release North Carolinians from the excessive taxes and fines imposed by the bill if they choose to exercise their right to pay for their own healthcare rather than one of the mandated insurance plans,” said Barnhart.
One of the primary points expressed by House Republicans opposed to the federal health care legislation was the detrimental effect its implementation will have on the economy. Job creation will be severely curtailed due to the huge costs placed on the backs of small businesses to provide mandated insurance coverage for their employees. Significant evidence from the private sector indicates the requirement will make it more difficult for businesses to expand and create jobs.
“Increased federal regulation and costly government mandates are wrong anytime, but are especially harmful during this time of severe recession,” said Rep. David Lewis. “The costs imposed on small businesses and pharmaceutical manufacturers will severely hamper efforts at job creation essential to an economic recovery in North Carolina and the country.”
Representative Tom Murry (R-Wake), a pharmacist by profession, pointed out that the bill would allow North Carolina to join other states in the litigation challenging the constitutionality of the federal legislation. ”While our bill does not require the NC Attorney General to file a separate lawsuit,” he said “it does provide that our state join the other 28 states in defending our citizens against this unconstitutional individual mandate in the federal health care law. It’s long overdue that North Carolina stand up in defense of our citizens’ rights in this important case,” said Murry.
During floor debate it was stressed that individuals must have the right to make their own health care decisions, including enrolling in insurance plans and must not be compelled by government to do so.
“It is everyone’s right and responsibility to consider which health care options are best for them and their families,” stated Representative Mark Hollo (R-Alexander). Rep. Hollo is a physician’s assistant. He continued: ”In some instances, it is more cost effective for people to pay their health care providers directly than to buy expensive insurance. Government must not inhibit people’s ability to do what is in their best interest concerning their own health care decisions.”
HB 2 will be sent to the Senate for its consideration.
By Ray Watters | Tuesday, February 1, 2011 - 22:14
I just took one of the pushier “push polls” I have ever heard Tuesday night. Twice.
That’s right. I received two phone calls Tuesday night within a three-hour span from pollsters claiming to represent a group called “North Carolina Jobs.” Both of them asked me the same poll questions each time. And both of them hung up while I tried to ask about the group or why I was called twice.
It gets worse. There were only three questions, each asking if I had a favorable or unfavorable view of the following things — Nash County’s future, the job being done by the Nash County commissioners and the proposed Sanderson Farms plant.
Those were the only choices I was given — approve or disapprove. So I asked the first pollster if there were any other choices. She informed me that “not sure” also was a choice. So I said “not sure” on each question so I could hear them all. When the second pollster called, she only offered approve or disapprove as choices. I asked again if there were other choices, and she also said “not sure” was an option. So I answered “not sure” again on all three questions.
Obviously, this won’t be a scientific poll if people are questioned multiple times. And how can anyone trust people’s responses if the pollsters don’t even read all the possible answers aloud?
I usually warn pollsters I work in the media, since that sometimes disqualifies me. I didn’t get a chance since both pollsters hung up when I tried to talk to them. That’s never happened to me before during a poll.
In case it sounds like I’m nitpicking, I’ve been on the other end of a phone poll before. I was one of the people working the phones for the Carolina Poll for the University of North Carolina in the late 1990s. It was required for certain journalism classes. We had sessions that told us how to administer the poll. We could only read from the scripts provided, and we had to read everything as written with no omissions. If someone didn’t fill out the whole survey or quit partway through, all of their responses were thrown out. There also were rules on what phone numbers we could call to avoid polling the same person twice.
I’m not sure if the problem here is the training of the workers or the poll itself, but I am sure that there’s no way this poll will gather accurate results.
