Perhaps you’ve read news stories saying, “U.S. manufacturing has made a comeback.” But is it true, and if so, why and what does it mean? Is manufacturing headed back to being a dominant part of our economy, as it was years ago?
First, has national manufacturing rebounded? By two broad measures, the answer is an unqualified “yes.” In terms of the quantity of manufactured products, U.S. factories set a record in 2011. The amount we made was 9 percent higher than before the recession and double the amount of 20 years ago.
We get the same result looking at the dollar value of manufactured goods. The sales value (after eliminating general price inflation) of manufactured products was at an all-time high in 2011.
A big part of this is exports. Sales of U.S.-manufactured products to foreign countries have surged.
What’s behind this good news? There have been several factors. First is a trend to a lower-valued dollar on the international stage. While this gets negative headlines, it makes U.S. exports relatively less expensive in other countries.
Second and of major importance has been an improvement in the relative competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers against their foreign counterparts. One positive from the recession is that it made our factories leaner; they’re getting more output from their inputs. Many U.S. factories also now are upgrading their technology and equipment, which will give them a further competitive boost.
A third factor is rising costs of manufacturing in some key foreign countries. China is seeing an uptick in labor costs, and Japan is experiencing cost effects from the 2011 tsunami and the resulting disruption to its energy market.
These facts might sound good, but many of you ask, “What about jobs, and could we get back to a situation when a person could come out of high school and go into the factory for a good paycheck?”
There are about 300,000 more manufacturing jobs in the nation today than there were at the bottom of the recession two years ago. That’s the good news. The bad news is that there still are more than 200,000 fewer factory jobs now than before the recession hit four years ago. It’s unlikely we’ll return to the economy where almost one out of three jobs was in the factory.
Why? It’s simple: Today’s factories use much more technology and modern equipment – and fewer workers – than in decades past. This is how our factories can churn out more output with fewer workers.
What’s the take-away from all this? Perhaps the most important conclusion is to recognize that the manufacturing sector is not dead, but it is significantly different. We can produce more with fewer workers, and this trend likely will continue.
While this also means you shouldn’t look for manufacturing to be the big employer it once was, if the sector continues to produce more and increase sales, manufacturing will generate growth for the national and state economies.
Dr. Mike Walden is a William Neal Reynolds Professor and N.C. Cooperative Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at N.C. State University.














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